Saturday, August 1, 2009

Market Wire Update

The markets sold the dollar and bought oil on Friday in a month-end move that ripped into the market as the European session closed. Equity trade did not back things, and that creates a question mark in regard to it's sustainability. The move is about as parabolic as it gets, and is highly unlikely to hold for too long. However to reverse it will need lower equities, and oil markets to back off 68.50. The IMF seemed to spark things with a call that questioned bond values, and tied in with a U.S. GDP release that was not as poor as expected.
The market reacted, but the lack of equity follow-through now leaves a huge question as to how this can hold. The administration will be delighted with the weaker dollar, the overseas central banks however will be less than happy with such a severe move. The dollar index hit 78.00, a 12 month low area, and a price point that previously has been very well protected by the international markets.
Dollar Swing Point: Short-dollar trends on the majors, but dramatically Oversold dollar reads, and way outside the daily trading ranges. These pairs will reverse the moment equity markets drop lower. Equities have not backed these moves at all, and that is a red flag.
Dollar Drivers. Long Trends, Long Momentum: Red Flag. The global dollar drivers are in neutral momentum reads, and outside of oil and gold, have not shown anything that suggests they will be backing the market holding these extended looking dollar index reads.
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